A Last-Minute Nuke to Shatter an Incoming Asteroid Could Actually Work, Study Suggests

The simulation demonstrated the effects of a one megaton bomb that ignited near the surface of a 328-foot-long (100-meter) asteroid. The scientists ran the simulation multiple times, with asteroids traveling along five distinct orbits.

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The results were very encouraging. For all asteroids tested, nuclear strikes performed months in advance of an impact served to significantly reduce the volume of incoming material.

“Simply stated, for a 100-meter object that’s projected to hit Earth, if we employ a robust nuclear disruption technique by at least one month before impact, we can prevent 99% or more of the impacting mass from hitting the Earth,” King explained in an email.

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Some simulated outcomes were particularly good, including scenarios in which over 99.9% of an asteroid’s mass missed Earth when nuked two months in advance. Results for larger asteroids were not as impressive but still exceptionally good, with 99% of their total mass missing Earth if nuked six months prior to impact.

Of course, these results were derived from simulations, so the new findings should be viewed with a smidge of caution.

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“We employed several approximations in order to make the study feasible, but we believe that we have captured the essential physics necessary to make general observations about nuclear disruption as a technique,” noted King when addressing the study’s limitations. “Much of our uncertainty is driven by our inherent uncertainty in the properties of the asteroids themselves; we definitely need to support more space missions to investigate their properties in more detail.”

When asked if breaking up an asteroid into many smaller pieces could actually make things worse, King said it’s one of the tradeoffs that must be made when deciding whether to employ the disruption technique.

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“By making several fragments instead of one single impactor, it is possible that we multiply the threat,” he wrote. “On the other hand, disruption has its own advantages, and a disruption could succeed where a deflection might not. This is all part of the process of evaluating what technique to use.” Encouragingly, King said that, for scenarios similar to the ones proposed in the new study, it may even be possible—but not guaranteed—that the disruption technique could “significantly reduce the scale of the disaster if we disrupt the object by as little as two weeks before impact.”

Ultimately, as the scientists wrote in their paper: “We find that disruption can be a very effective planetary defense strategy even for very late interventions, and should be considered an effective backup strategy should preferred methods, which require long warning times, fail.”

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We’re not quite ready to nuke any asteroids, but we are taking the required steps to mount a planetary defense. NASA is on the verge of deploying its DART mission, set to launch on November 24. The spacecraft will smash into Dimorphos on October 2, 2022, in hopes of altering the asteroid’s speed and trajectory. The proof-of-concept mission could set the stage for more meaningful—and potentially life saving—actions, particularly in the event of having to launch a kinetic impactor in an emergency.

More: The asteroid impact simulation has ended in disaster.

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